Herd immunity is not a realistic exit strategy during a COVID-19 outbreak

Från Coronadokumenten
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datum 2020/04/29
etiketter vetenskap
url https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-25862/v1
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Natural herd immunity has been suggested as a potential exit strategy during COVID-19 outbreaks, which may arise when 50-67% of a community has been infected. Here we present the prevalence and distribution of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in a healthy adult population of a highly affected country using a novel immunoassay, indicating that one month into the outbreak (i) the seroprevalence in the Netherlands is 2.7% with substantial regional variation, (ii) the hardest-hit areas show a seroprevalence of up to 9.5%, (iii) the seroprevalence is sex-independent throughout age groups (18-72 years), (iv) antibodies are significantly more often detected in younger people (18-30 years), and (v) the number of immune individuals in the current epidemic stage is far below the herd immunity threshold. This study provides vital information on the extent of virus spread in a country where social distancing is in place, concluding that herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2 is not a realistic short-term exit strategy option.