Giesecke: why lockdowns are the wrong policy

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datum 2020/04/17
etiketter storbritannien,giesecke
url https://unherd.com/thepost/coming-up-epidemiologist-prof-johan-giesecke-shares-lessons-from-sweden/
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Intervju med Giesecke med Freddie Sayers i UnHerd.

Professor Johan Giesecke, one of the world’s most senior epidemiologists, advisor to the Swedish Government (he hired Anders Tegnell who is currently directing Swedish strategy), the first Chief Scientist of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, and an advisor to the director general of the WHO, lays out with typically Swedish bluntness why he thinks:

   UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based
   The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only
   This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a “by-product”
   The initial UK response, before the “180 degree U-turn”, was better
   The Imperial College paper was “not very good” and he has never seen an unpublished paper have so much policy impact
   The paper was very much too pessimistic
   Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway
   The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown
   The results will eventually be similar for all countries
   Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.
   The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%
   At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available